Together with Public

We hope you’re having a great week.

Make sure you’re following us on Spotify, Apple, YouTube, or wherever else you watch the show! We want you to get notified when each new episode is released.

Read on for this week’s breakdown of the markets!

A quick breakdown — in case you don’t have the time.

We’ve officially entered the fourth year of this bull market.

It’s official, the bull market that started in October 2022 is officially heading into year four! Since 1950, six of the last seven bull markets that reached their fourth year were higher a year later — for an average return of +14.6% and a median return of +13.7%.

We shared this data not to claim it as predictive for the next 12 months, but instead to show you that history is on our side. As of today, this bull market has delivered total returns of +89% since those October 2022 lows. Over the last 11 bull markets, the S&P 500 delivered an average return of +191% before it ended.

Despite everyone calling this AI-driven bull market a bubble, this bull market has actually been par for the course. According to Fidelity, the average bull market produces roughly +90% gains over the course of 30 months — we’re currently hovering around that same average over a 36 month time horizon.

We understand the fear — seeing your portfolio nose dive by -3-4% in a single trading day can be intimidating, as that’s exactly what happened last week because of Trump’s post online about China. The reality is, volatility is the cost of investing. Stocks go up and down. The key to winning in the stock market is to stay invested, have a plan, and stick to it.

Today’s Rich Habits Newsletter is brought to you by Public, the investing platform that combines a broad range of asset classes with the tools you need to build and manage your wealth. 

From stocks to bonds, options, crypto, and more—it’s all here. You can even generate fixed income with a suite of yield accounts. If you’re looking for more than just a place to trade, discover the investing platform that’s as serious about your money as you are. 

👉 Episode 139: The Easiest Way To Lower Your Tax Bill — Direct Indexing With Public

In this week’s Monday-morning episode of the Rich Habits Podcast (linked here) — Austin and Robert sat down with Stephen Sikes, Chief Operating Officer of Public, to break down one of the most powerful — yet historically exclusive — investing strategies: direct indexing.

For decades, direct indexing was reserved for the ultra-wealthy — typically requiring $250K minimums and access to private wealth managers. But now, Public has made it available to everyday investors with as little as $1,000, potentially helping users save thousands each year in taxes.

Here’s what they covered…

This conversation breaks down one of the biggest shifts happening in personal finance — and why the next evolution of index investing is already here.

👉 Q&A: Investing OR Paying Off Mortgage, Passing Wealth To Children, & Paying For College

Here’s a link to the Q&A episode that was posted this morning.

You can submit questions for these episodes by asking them inside of the Rich Habits Network, replying to this email, or sending us a DM on Instagram.

The Rich Habits Podcast is available on Spotify, Apple, iHeart, YouTube, and wherever else you get your content!

Americans are tightening their wallets.

According to a recent Redfin survey, 17% of Americans are delaying major purchases like homes or cars due to the ongoing government shutdown — and 7% have canceled plans altogether.

Much of this comes down to uncertainty. Many federal employees and contractors have paused spending until paychecks resume, while over 40% of Americans are delaying or canceling big purchases because they’re worried about job security.

In fact, 37% of workers say they’re more concerned about losing their job today than at the start of the year. Every week the government is shutdown, the economy loses roughly -$1B in economic activity.

The takeaway? Confidence drives spending — and right now, confidence is fading.

When people stop making major purchases, it ripples through the entire economy. It’s a reminder that stability matters — not just in markets, but in people’s lives.

Small-cap stocks are breaking out — put on your dancing shoes.

The Russell 2000, an index that tracks the performance of 2,000 small-cap publicly traded companies in the United States, is breaking out of a 4-year basing structure. As a reminder, the Russell 2000 is made up of companies whose market caps usually fall between $250M and $3B. Considering the size of the average company inside of this index, it has historically been used by investors to gauge risk-on sentiment, since small-caps tend to be more sensitive to economic cycles.

As the Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates (and restart quantitative easing) small cap companies are poised to benefit the most — and it’s already taking place.

If you’re inside the Rich Habits Network, you’ll know I’ve been building a small cap-focused portfolio on Public — and it’s up roughly +25% over the last month. It remains my belief that this “AI-induced Bubble” is not over and these small cap names will continue to experience momentum.

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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or a recommendation for any investment. The content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Public Disclosures: All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Cryptocurrency trading services are offered by Bakkt Crypto Solutions (NMLS ID 1890144), which is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the NYSDFS. Cryptocurrency is highly speculative and involves a high degree of risk. Cryptocurrency holdings are not protected by the FDIC or SIPC.
As part of the IRA Match Program, Public Investing will fund a 1% match of: (a) all eligible IRA transfers and 401(k) rollovers made to a Public IRA; and (b) all eligible contributions made to a Public IRA up to the account’s annual contribution limit. The matched funds must be kept in the account for at least 5 years to avoid an early removal fee. Match rate and other terms of the Match Program are subject to change at any time. See full terms here.

See terms and conditions of Public’s ACATS & IRA Match Program. Matched funds must remain in the account for at least 5 years to avoid an early removal fee. Match rate and other terms of the Match Program are subject to change at any time.