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It’s a special time on the calendar — and we hope you’ll be safe this 4th of July weekend. Every year, this holiday weekend is accompanied by bad decisions with fireworks, driving cars when they shouldn’t be driven, and preventable accidents. Please take care of yourself and have a wonderful time!

A quick breakdown — in case you don’t have the time.

The M2 money supply is screaming “Bitcoin goes higher.”

The U.S. M2 money supply surged +4.5% year-over-year in May, hitting a new all-time high of $21.94 trillion — officially surpassing the previous record set in March 2022 ($21.86T).

This marks the 19th straight month of growth, underscoring a significant and sustained expansion of liquidity in the financial system. Even more notable: inflation-adjusted M2 — which accounts for the real value of money — climbed +2.1% YoY, its fastest pace since early 2022.

Since the start of 2020, the M2 supply has ballooned by nearly $7 trillion, a +45% increase in just over five years. Meanwhile, the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar continues to erode, locked in a long-term downtrend. More dollars in circulation + fewer goods = a currency that buys less over time.

And what are we doing as a result? We’re INVESTING. Regardless of what the government says about inflation data, we know that U.S. dollar has less and less purchasing power over time. People that don’t understand this pile all of their money in the bank — only to realize a decade later that their net worth could have been so much higher if they invested.

Today’s Rich Habits Newsletter is brought to you by Public, the investing platform that combines a broad range of asset classes with the tools you need to build and manage your wealth. 

From stocks to bonds, options, crypto, and more—it’s all here. You can even generate fixed income with a suite of yield accounts. If you’re looking for more than just a place to trade, discover the investing platform that’s as serious about your money as you are. 

👉 Episode 124: Our 2025 Mid-Year Update + Bonus Predictions

In this week’s Monday-morning episode of the Rich Habits Podcast (linked here) — Austin and Robert reflected on their predictions from the beginning of the year, and discussed the second half of 2025 with Garrett Paolella & Troy Cates from NEOS Investments.

They also announced something big: starting August 1st, you’ll be getting a new Friday episode called Rich Habits Radar — a weekly breakdown of the market headlines that moved your money, plus rapid-fire Q&A for side hustlers, solopreneurs, and business owners.

Here’s what they covered this week...

👉 Q&A: Investing During Times of War, Vanguard’s Drawbacks, & Buying a House at 62

Here’s a link to the Q&A episode that was posted this morning.

We answered questions from: Ayinde, Henry, Rachel, Pete, Hayden, Tammy, Anthony, Andy, and Kate.

You can submit questions for these episodes by asking them inside of the Rich Habits Network, replying to this email, or sending us a DM on Instagram.

The Rich Habits Podcast is available on Spotify, Apple, iHeart, YouTube, and wherever else you get your content!

July is typically the most bullish month of the year.

After the most aggressive rebound in history following a -20% sell-off, the stock market has officially hit new all-time highs (S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100). This rally seems to be propelled by a few underlying themes:

To double-click on that last bullet point — July is the strongest month of the year for US stocks, historically speaking. 17 out of the last 18 Julys have finished positive for the Nasdaq for an average gain of +4.2%.

This week, specifically, starts the best seasonal period of the year for the Nasdaq — the first-half of July is the best 2-week stretch on the calendar. The Nasdaq has rallied from June 28th to July 12th in 31 of the last 40 years for an average gain of +2.7% (shown above).

The S&P 500 just experienced a Golden Cross.

A “Golden Cross” is a specific moment in time when a stock or index’s 50-day moving average climbs above the 200-day moving average. Think about that for a moment — it simply means short-term momentum (50-day moving average) is becoming more important and will bring the long-term momentum (200-day moving average) with it.

Historically speaking, this has been quite bullish for the S&P 500 over the coming 6, 9, and 12-months. Dating back to 1975, every time the S&P 500 has formed a “Golden Cross,” the index has delivered an average return of +12.3% for its investors over the next 12-months.

The highest return was 38.6% in 2020, and the lowest was a -11.5% loss in 1977. The indicator isn’t perfect, but history is on our side (examples shown below).

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It just takes a few moments — enjoy the resources!

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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or a recommendation for any investment. The content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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