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- 😨 Q1 GDP Estimates Drop to -2.8%
😨 Q1 GDP Estimates Drop to -2.8%
& inflation declining to +1.3%?
Austin & Robert from Rich Habits
March 06, 2025
Together with Roi
Good morning,
A quick breakdown — in case you don’t have the time.
⭐ The Atlanta Fed slashed its Q1 2025 GDP growth estimate again.
⭐ We spoke with Brandon Turner about building a $1B+ real estate portfolio.
⭐ Tomorrow is the first-ever Crypto Summit, hosted by the White House.
⭐ It’s unclear if inflation is surging, or fading.
⭐ Layoff announcements surge as U.S. employers cut 172K+ jobs in February.
Market Overview
As of market open, 3/6/2025
Chart of the Week
The Atlanta Fed slashed its Q1 2025 GDP growth estimate again.
The Atlanta Fed, one of the 12 regional banks that make up the Federal Reserve System, slashed their Q1 GDP growth estimates again from -1.5% on February 28th to -2.8% on March 3rd.
That’s a stunning drop from +3.9% in early-February to -2.8% today.
In a matter of days, their outlook has shifted from strong expansion to sharp contraction. The speed of this reversal highlights the growing economic uncertainty given trade tensions between the US and Canada, Mexico, and China.
There might not a be a single metric more important to keep an eye on over the coming weeks. Given this terrible -2.8% contraction estimate, Wall Street has also begun lowering their earnings estimates for 2025 — causing the stock market to fall.
Additionally, tariffs negatively impact corporate profits as well.
If we receive positive news surrounding Q1 GDP as more information is gathered, we could see some relief in the markets. If we receive positive news surrounding both Q1 GDP and tariffs, we could shoot right back to all-time highs.
It’s important to note that these GDP projections are only representing Q1 data that’s currently available to the Atlanta Fed. They don’t yet have all of the data that’s going to be baked into the Q1 2025 GDP reading.
The markets have proven to be much more volatile in 2025 than in 2024 or 2023. As shared on Episode 100 of the podcast, we believe the “easy money” has been made and now it’s more important than ever to have a strategy with your money and stick with it.
Our strategy includes taking profits on some of our most profitable trades in the last few years and reallocating that money toward more defensive positions. Have a short list of 3-5 ETFs you love and continue to buy them no matter what. Automate your investing!
You’re going to thank yourself in 3 years.
As a listener of the Rich Habits Podcast, you know how important it is to track your net worth. However, most tools out there don’t support all of your accounts or are unreliable.
They support tracking literally everything from your stocks to cash, bonds, crypto, company equity (Carta), collectibles, and more all in real-time. They’ve also recently partnered with our friends at Public.com!
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They’re also launching a new AI “financial advisor” that helps you optimize your portfolio with personalized insights and a ChatGPT like experience but tailored to you and your portfolio. Last year, Roi helped users find on average an additional $1,463 in new opportunities.
In Case You Missed It…
In this week’s Monday-morning episode of the Rich Habits Podcast (linked here) — Robert and Austin sat down with real estate investor and educator Brandon Turner.
Here’s what they talked about:
Getting Started in Real Estate — You don’t need a fortune to start investing. Brandon broke down how to buy your first rental property with little money down, and why house hacking is one of his favorite strategies.
Investing in Today’s Market — With high interest rates and tight cash flow, real estate investing can be daunting nowadays. Brandon shared his insights on the 2025 real estate market and how to analyze deals the right way.
Scaling to Financial Freedom — Owning one rental is great, but how do you turn it into a real estate empire? From creative financing options to scaling your portfolio, Brandon explained how to consistently grow a real estate portfolio.
The Power of Vision — Success in real estate (or anything) starts with a clear vision. Brandon discussed how to set long-term goals that guide your financial decisions and help you stay on track. You don’t have to have a goal of $1B+ in real estate — but you need to have something as your goal!
Tune into the episode (linked here) for more of the conversation with Brandon Turner.
And check out his BetterLife Podcast (linked here)!
Here’s a link to the Q&A episode that was posted this morning. Today officially marks the 2-Year Anniversary of the Rich Habits Podcast and we couldn’t be more excited!
We answered questions from: Sean S, Adrian C, Maria Jose S, Andrew D, Lauren M, Olivia R, Amit S, Kristin B, and Art V
You can submit questions for these episodes by asking them inside of the Rich Habits Network, replying to this email, or sending us a DM on Instagram.
The Rich Habits Podcast is available on Spotify, Apple, iHeart, YouTube, and wherever else you get your content!
Robert’s Callout
Tomorrow is the first-ever Crypto Summit, hosted by the White House.
As you are likely well aware, the White House is hosting its first-ever Crypto Summit tomorrow — and the above graphic shows who is expected to be there. It’s interesting to see that there’s very few leaders of directly investable stocks / tokens: $COIN ( ▲ 9.01% ) , $HOOD ( ▲ 1.78% ) , $MSTR ( ▲ 0.7% ) , $LINK.X ( ▲ 2.18% ) , $XRP.X ( ▲ 0.09% ) , WLFI.X, and $CRO.X ( ▲ 1.41% ) .
Over the last few weeks, the crypto sector has been riding a roller coaster of emotions. We’ve seen record outflows from crypto and record inflows to gold. Today, the market is seeing a rally to the upside in anticipation to the event.
We’ll see if this summit leads to any major announcements, or if it’s more of a formality in the short-term. Of course, there’s a chance that this is a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event in the markets. Either way, this event doesn’t change my strategy as I continue to buy more and more cryptocurrency.
Regardless of what happens over the coming days… step back and think about how far the crypto world has come. I started buying Bitcoin and Ethereum when they were worth hundreds of dollars and just a few dollars, respectively.…
Now… the crypto world is being welcomed to the White House. Unbelievable! I remain bullish and continue to encourage everyone to allocate 1-5% of their net worth to the asset class, specifically Bitcoin.
Austin’s Callout
It’s unclear if inflation is surging, or fading…
According to the Conference Board’s latest survey, US consumers now expect inflation to rise to +6.0% over the next 12 months — the highest level since May 2023. This marks the third consecutive monthly increase in inflation expectations.
Looking further ahead, Americans believe prices will rise at an annual rate of +3.5% over the next 5-10 years, the highest long-term inflation expectation in 30 years.
Additionally, regional manufacturing surveys in Philadelphia, New York, Kansas, and Texas all reported a sharp rise in prices paid, reaching their highest levels since mid-2023.
However, Truflation is telling a very different story.
Truflation — a decentralized infrastructure using 80+ data providers to assess the true impact of inflation — currently projects that U.S. CPI inflation is falling off a cliff and currently sitting at only +1.3% YoY.
See this important distinction about Truflation numbers:
“We don’t aim to replicate BLS numbers — we have our own methodology for calculating CPI. While absolute values won’t match, the trends do. That’s why Truflation is a leading indicator (RT + 30 Million data points + uploaded in the blockchain), helping you anticipate where BLS inflation prints will pivot — and for how long they’ll stay on the same trend.”
The average US Consumer is expecting inflation to skyrocket back to +6.0%, while Truflation is signaling a meaningful cooldown in inflation. This very well could be another positive catalyst for the markets, assuming Truflation’s data is reflected in the next CPI report.
It’s important to remember the Federal Reserve is very much focused on taming inflation, and if Truflation data is actually true — multiple rate cuts could happen in 2025 (a very good thing for the markets).
I’ll be watching these inflation numbers very closely and we’ll report back!
The Rich Habits Radar
👉 The S&P 500 posted its worst day of 2025 on Monday, dropping -1.7%.
👉 CrowdStrike stumbled -6% due to weak Q4 outlook.
👉 Income-focused investors are watching the new Monthly Income Podcast.
👉 Tesla shares shed -26% this month as tariffs threaten EV supply chains.
👉 Layoff announcements surge as U.S. employers cut 172K+ jobs in February.
👉 Trump delayed auto tariffs by one month; Ford and GM jumped +8%.
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