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One of the most pivotal weeks of 2025 has gone pretty well so far!

Before we jump into things, we wanted to give a major shoutout to our friends over at NEOS Funds! Their ETF, QQQI, was just awarded “Best New Active ETF” by ETF.com — highlighting the fund’s growing adoption and unique characteristics.

A quick breakdown — in case you don’t have the time.

The market is shaking off the worst GDP print in three years.

The U.S. economy contracted at the start of the year for the first time since 2022 — largely due to a pre-tariffs import surge and more moderate consumer spending. Imports exploded at an annualized rate of +41.3%, which is the largest growth in nearly five years. Consumer spending (which accounts for about two-thirds of GDP) advanced at +1.8% — the weakest growth since mid-2023.

Now we must talk about the constant conflict between economic data and the stock market. Economic data is entirely based on the past, while the stock market is always focused on the future. This GDP print was negative, causing the market to sell-off by about -2% earlier this week. However, it’s already fully recovered and the S&P 500 is now only down -4.3% YTD.

So what comes next? In our opinion — we are at the ultimate “wait and see moment” for the stock market. From February 19 to April 8th, the S&P 500 fell-21% from all-time highs. The market was very much expecting an ugly Q1 GDP print, and that’s exactly what we got. It’s clear that thousands of companies are struggling with changes to their supply chains, offering unclear guidance, and hesitant to expand their teams without more clarity on tariffs.

However… here are some potentially bullish catalysts that could be on the way:

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👉 Episode 115: How to Recession-Proof Your Wealth

In this week’s Monday-morning episode of the Rich Habits Podcast (linked here) — Austin and Robert shared their four strategies for recession-proofing your wealth.

Here’s what they talked about:

👉 Q&A: Leveraged ETFs, Losing Rental Property, & Our Bitcoin Exit Strategy

Here’s a link to the Q&A episode that was posted this morning.

We answered questions from: Lynn, Jordan, Dan, Katie, Camron, and Kyrene

You can submit questions for these episodes by asking them inside of the Rich Habits Network, replying to this email, or sending us a DM on Instagram.

The Rich Habits Podcast is available on Spotify, Apple, iHeart, YouTube, and wherever else you get your content!

We’re not “selling in May and going away.”

May–October is historically the weakest six month period for the stock market, but recent years have shown consistent gains during this timeframe. This “worst six months in the market” has actually produced gains in eight of the last ten years, with May itself performing well in nine of the last ten.

Despite early 2025 market weakness due to the unexpected magnitude of tariffs, dips like these aren’t unusual in post-election years and I think it’s been a great buying opportunity.

The recent six-day winning streak in the S&P 500 is a historically bullish signal, followed by a year-end return that averages +15.8% for the index. I don’t believe in building an investment thesis around specific dates and past market data. The -19% drop we experienced in the market throughout April was no joke — we’re not out of the woods yet. With that being said, I like our odds of green days ahead.

To keep it short and simple… I’m absolutely not “selling in May and going away” in 2025. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more choppiness in the market and even more downside ahead, but please don’t believe all of the headlines that spew this “sell in May” rhetoric each and every year!

And if the market goes down further than the recent low on April 8th… I’M BUYING BIG!

Earnings reports and guidance will dictate the market’s direction.

Earnings downgrades among S&P 500 companies are now at levels seen during the Global Financial Crisis and the pandemic. In contrast, non-U.S. companies are experiencing revisions within normal ranges.

This divergence is partly due to the U.S. facing a supply shock from tariffs, while other countries face a demand shock — which is easier to offset with domestic stimulus. As an ultimate result, non-U.S. stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks so far this year.

I truly believe that earnings reports for the rest of this quarter and during next quarter will be the primary catalyst for this market — not economic data. If we don’t see more decisive action taken with tariffs, then companies are going to become increasingly unclear with forward guidance. If we see President Trump strike some major deals over the coming days and weeks, then these earnings downgrades may begin to dissipate.

As we see so much news surrounding global affairs, economic data, the Fed, inflation, etc… I encourage you to really take a close look at corporate earnings over the coming months. Similar to economic data, these results are backward-looking. Every company in the stock market is trying to piece together a puzzle of how tariffs impact them, and how that may change at a moment’s notice.

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