- Rich Habits Newsletter
- Posts
- 👎 The Nasdaq-100 Could Be in a Bear Market
👎 The Nasdaq-100 Could Be in a Bear Market
& employee confidence has plummeted.
Austin & Robert from Rich Habits
March 27, 2025
Together with Public
Happy Thursday,
Austin joined Ross Mac on this week’s episode of his Yahoo! Finance podcast Financial Freestyle — click here to give it a listen!
Also — thanks again to StockTwits for nominating us as the Finance Creators of the Year! If you want to toss us a quick vote, feel free to click here and sign up for free.
We can’t thank you all enough for the support!
A quick breakdown — in case you don’t have the time.
⭐ Trial the Rich Habits Network for FREE for 7 Days (seriously)!
⭐ The Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) has rejected its 200-day moving average.
⭐ We made an episode about escaping the psychology of broke.
⭐ Employee confidence hasn’t just declined — it’s plummeted.
⭐ The equal-weighted S&P 500's P/E ratio is fairly-priced.
⭐ OpenAI expects to generate $29.4B in revenue in 2026.
Market Overview
As of market open, 3/27/2025
Chart of the Week
The Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) has rejected the 200-day moving average.
If you’re in the Rich Habits Network, you’ve likely been keeping tabs on this moving average for several weeks now — but for everyone else let us bring you up to speed. The stock market experiences cycles — bull markets and bear markets.
Bull markets happen when the price of an index is trading above the 200-day moving average, and bear markets happen when the price of an index is trading below the 200-day moving average.
Sometimes, the price of an index will briefly break below the 200-day moving average before jumping back above it and continuing on with a bull market trend. We experienced this in August of 2024. We broke below before quickly bouncing back up.
Other times, you see what we’ve experienced thus far in 2025 — a break below, a retest, and a rejection. This rejection will be confirmed as the start of a potential bear market if the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) breaks below recent lows around the $467 range.
Don’t panic! Bear markets happen all of the time. We actually just experienced one three short years ago. It lasted only 16-months and gave us the opportunity to buy some incredible companies at very cheap prices!
The above image does a wonderful job illustrating market cycles.
They come and they go, but over a long period of time they always trend higher — following the intrinsic value of companies. Considering the constituents of the S&P 500 are expected to grow their profits by a median of +14.8% in 2025 — there’s nothing to be scared of.
When in doubt, zoom out!
It’s actually really fun to compare and contrast the drawing above with the actual price action of Nasdaq-100 Index. Trending higher over time, with boom and bust market cycles along the way.
Today’s Rich Habits Newsletter is brought to you by Public, the investing platform trusted by millions. On Public, you can build a multi-asset investment portfolio of stocks, options, bonds, crypto, and more.
You can even put your cash to work at an industry-leading 4.10% APY*.
Public is a US-based company and member of FINRA with an award-winning customer support team. Plus, only Public has Alpha, an AI-powered investment research assistant that can answer any question about any stock.
In Case You Missed It…
In this week’s Monday-morning episode of the Rich Habits Podcast (linked here) — Austin and Robert broke down the psychology behind overspending, under-saving, and letting “lifestyle creep” negatively impact your financial journey.
Here’s what they talked about
Spending Money as an Identity — People think they aren’t materialistic, but their spending tells a different story. Too many tie their identity to what they buy, like that $5 latte signaling a certain lifestyle. Studies from the Journal of Consumer Research show we overspend to chase an aspirational self, even if it means living paycheck to paycheck. Define “rich” by your values — freedom, relationships, growth — not your shopping cart.
Chasing Instant Gratification — The dopamine hit from a new purchase is addictive, and neuroscience agrees: a 2023 MIT study found spending money lights up the brain more than saving money. The thrill is usually short-lived, leaving you with debt and a cluttered closet. Adults plan ahead while kids chase the moment — yet too many of us make impulse purchases. Use the 48-hour rule: jot it down, wait, and see if you still want it later.
Social Pressure & FOMO — “Keeping up with Joneses” can tank your finances fast. A 2024 NerdWallet survey found 60% of Gen Z overspend due to peer pressure. Comparing ourselves to others has become far too common, especially due to social media. Consider trying a “no spend day” — don’t touch the wallet, grab a drink from the fridge, and go to a park. You’ll be amazed how little you miss the spending.
Regardless of where you are in your financial journey, spending habits can easily be formed or broken! Take time to understand what you are spending money on — and why. You’ll be thankful that you did!
Here’s a link to the Q&A episode that was posted this morning.
We answered questions from: Mihael G, Justin S, MG, Inna V, AG, Sophie J, and Manoj V.
You can submit questions for these episodes by asking them inside of the Rich Habits Network, replying to this email, or sending us a DM on Instagram.
The Rich Habits Podcast is available on Spotify, Apple, iHeart, YouTube, and wherever else you get your content!
Robert’s Callout
Employee confidence hasn’t just declined — it’s plummeted.
Americans are expressing near-record levels of pessimism about the job market, signaling a significant shift in workplace sentiment.
In February, only 44% of employees had a positive outlook on their employer’s business prospects — the lowest level recorded since Glassdoor began tracking this data in 2016. Over the past two years, the Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index has experienced a steep decline, dropping by -12 percentage points — reflecting growing frustration across various industries.
Government and administration employees have seen the sharpest decline in confidence, with sentiment falling by approximately 5 percentage points — the most significant drop among all sectors. The aerospace and defense industry has also been affected, with worker confidence slipping by -3.5 percentage points.
More broadly, negative sentiment is spreading across industries. Out of the 24 sectors tracked by Glassdoor — 14 have experienced a notable increase in pessimism. These trends suggest that concerns about economic uncertainty, job stability, and future growth are weighing heavily on American workers.
Remember what we said at the beginning of the year — the American workforce will be a key part of if a recession comes or not.
Right now, I don’t believe we’re in a recession and I believe we have a great chance of avoiding one. However, these types of economic data points aren’t great to see!
Continue to keep an eye on Employee Confidence, Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales, the Jobs Report, and the ADP Employment Report.
Austin’s Callout
The equal-weighted S&P 500's P/E ratio is fairly-priced.
As a quick reminder, the S&P 500 Index is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 large-cap companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It’s widely regarded as one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market and economy due to its broad coverage across various industries.
It is a market-capitalization-weighted index, meaning the size of each company (measured by its market cap — total value of outstanding shares) determines its influence on the index’s value.
For example, Apple makes up 7% of the S&P 500 Index because of its $3.4 trillion market cap — whereas Tesla only makes up 1.6% because of it’s much smaller $926 billion market cap. This means if Apples stock price moves up or down dramatically in a single day, so does the S&P 500 (VOO / SPY).
Now on the flip side, an interesting alternative to the S&P 500 Index is the “equal-weight” S&P 500 Index. This index holds all of the exact same names, except instead of those names being market-cap weighted(like the Apple and Tesla example shared above) — they’re all equally-weighted at 0.2% each.
The “equal-weight” index illustrates how the “average” company inside the S&P 500 is valued. We’ve all heard of the Magnificent Seven — but what about the other 493 names? According to the chart above, the equal-weight S&P 500 index is “fairly-priced,” historically speaking.
This tells me a few things:
1) The “premium” investors are paying to invest in the S&P 500 derives from the “over-valued” Magnificent Seven. Which is why we’ve seen such a dramatic contraction in this sector of the markets YTD (down -12%).
2) The “average” company in the S&P 500 is fairly-priced, which means we could begin to see a further rotation out of the “Big Tech” stocks and into the “everyday names” that make up the US economy in the coming months and quarters.
Chamath Palihapitiya shared on Polymarket at the start of the year that he was betting the Magnificent Seven would continue to shed value in relation to the other 493 throughout the year. This has absolutely come true.
3) It very well could be a great time to buy the (RSP) ETF — S&P 500 Equal Weight.
The Rich Habits Radar
👉 GameStop surged +15% as board approves Bitcoin reserve.
👉 Dollar Tree sold Family Dollar stores for just $1B.
👉 OpenAI expects to generate $29.4B in revenue in 2026.
👉 Nvidia dropped -5.6% due to new Chinese environmental guidelines.
👉 U.S. consumer confidence dropped to 12-year low.
👉Trump imposed new Auto Tariffs.
Our New Referral Program!
Share this newsletter with 1 person and you’ll be sent our Financial Planning Workbook. Share it with 2 people and you’ll also be sent our video module explaining how Austin and Robert Analyze New Stocks.
It just takes a few moments — enjoy the resources!
Check ‘Em Out
Below is a list of our featured partners that we’ve vetted — with whom we have a personal relationship. Browse these exclusive offers curated just for you:
Budgeting — Download our FREE Budgeting Template
High-Yield Cash Account — Earn 5.1% on your savings
Public — Trade stocks, options, and crypto
Frec — Use direct indexing to invest & save on taxes
Grifin — Automatically buy stock where you shop
Acorns — Get $35 free when you subscribe
Suriance — Protect your family with term life insurance
Video Course — Use code “Newsletter” for 15% off
Seeking Alpha — Optimize your portfolio
Credit Card Matrix — Find your next favorite card to swipe
Roi — Use code “Habits” and start tracking your net worth
Dynasty — Protect your home in a trust
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or a recommendation for any investment. The content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Public Disclosures:
*Rate as of 3/27/25. APY is variable and subject to change.
**Terms and Conditions apply.
Paid endorsement for Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. Cryptocurrency trading services are offered by Bakkt Crypto Solutions, LLC (NMLS ID 1828849), which is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the NYSDFS. Cryptocurrency is highly speculative, involves a high degree of risk, and has the potential for loss of the entire amount of an investment. Cryptocurrency holdings are not protected by the FDIC or SIPC.
Alpha is an AI research tool powered by GPT-4. Alpha is experimental and may generate inaccurate responses. Output from Alpha should not be construed as investment research or recommendations, and should not serve as the basis for any investment decision. Public makes no warranties about its accuracy, completeness, quality, or timeliness of any Alpha out. Please independently evaluate and verify any such output for your own use case.