Together with Waldo
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Let’s dive into this week’s analysis!
A quick breakdown — in case you don’t have the time.
⭐ AI is creating jobs, not killing them.
⭐ Venture lessons that cost Chris Camillo millions.
⭐ July has been a green month in the S&P 500 for the last 11 years.
⭐ Retail investors are deploying capital at a record pace.
⭐ Claude Fable 5 returned after U.S. export controls were lifted.
Market Overview
As of Market Open 7/2/26
ETF Winners & Losers
Chart of the Week
AI is creating jobs, not killing them.
Most people hear “AI adoption” and immediately think layoffs. Companies use new tools, automate more work, and eventually need fewer people. That may happen in certain roles and certain businesses, but this chart shows a very different pattern so far.
Using firm-level AI spending and workforce data across more than 21,000 U.S. businesses, researchers found that companies with heavy AI adoption increased headcount by roughly +10% over the two years after adoption. For entry-level roles, the increase was even larger at roughly +12%.
Low AI adopters saw no statistically significant change.
That is important because it suggests the companies spending the most on AI are not simply using it to replace workers. They are using it to grow. More automation can mean faster product launches, better customer support, stronger sales teams, more software output, and more capacity across the business.
When a company gets more productive, it can often take on more work. And when it takes on more work, it usually needs more people.
This does not mean AI will be harmless for every worker. Some tasks will disappear. Some roles will be reshaped. Some companies will absolutely use AI as a cost-cutting tool. But the bigger picture is that the best businesses usually use new technology to expand, not shrink.
AI is not automatically a job killer. It is a leverage tool. The people and companies that learn how to use it well are likely going to create more value, move faster, and pull further ahead.
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In Case You Missed It…
In this week's Monday-morning episode of the Rich Habits Podcast (linked here) — Austin, Robert, and Christian sit down with legendary investor Chris Camillo at Capital Factory in Austin, TX to break down what 20 years and 160 venture investments actually teach you.
Here’s what they covered…
Venture Investing Is a Lifestyle, Not Just an Asset Class — Chris famously turned $20,000 into $80 million through public markets, but he's spent two decades making private investments too. The ROI on relationships often dwarfs the financial returns. The networks, deal flow, and founder relationships that come from being an active LP are career-changing — even when the individual investments don't work out.
Most of Your Returns Come From a Handful of Winners — Out of roughly 160 venture investments, about 10 names generated essentially all of Chris's returns. The rest? A lot of zeros. That's the math of venture — and understanding it changes how you size bets and set expectations.
The Barbell Strategy for Venture — Chris breaks his approach into two sides. One side: boring, cash-flowing businesses that derisk your capital from day one. The other side: massive swings at companies with enormous TAMs where one winner can return the entire portfolio. The middle — companies that are neither safe nor transformative — is where most money gets quietly destroyed.
Access Is the New Edge — The hottest deals in venture today aren't about finding hidden gems. They're about getting into rounds for companies everyone already knows are winning — Anthropic, SpaceX, Figure. The edge isn't information. It's relationships and access, which is exactly what communities like the Rich Habits Network are built to provide.
Live Questions From the Retreat — For the first time, the podcast included questions from a live audience at the Rich Habits Retreat in Austin. Topics ranged from AI’s impact on higher education to how investors can separate short-term fads from truly investable trends.
Whether you're writing your first $1,000 angel check or thinking about joining a fund as an LP, this episode is a masterclass in what venture capital actually looks like from someone who's lived it for 20 years.
Here’s a link to the Q&A episode that was posted on Thursday.
You can submit questions for these episodes by asking them inside of the Rich Habits Network, replying to this email, or sending us a DM on Instagram.
The Rich Habits Podcast is available on Spotify, Apple, iHeart, YouTube, and wherever else you get your content!
Austin’s Callout
July has been a green month in the S&P 500 for the last 11 years.
That’s it — that’s the analysis!
Well, sort of.
Historically speaking, July has been a wonderful month for the S&P 500 — as shown above. Average return during the month is +3.2%, with a median return of +2.3%. But I want to make sure we’re all clear on something — this is the S&P 500.
Momentum stocks have experienced a very different history. Over the last five years, July has been the most negative month for momentum stocks. Given the insane run momentum names have experienced year-to-date (SPMO is up +30% YTD) — it would make sense for these momentum names to slow down and the laggards to catch up.
We began to see some of that rotation during the month of June — Healthcare (XLV) rose +9%, Utilities (XLU) rose +3%, Financials (XLF) rose +7%. All of these sectors were lagging the broader indices during the first half of the year — maybe that broadening continues during the back half?
This is why I hold a massive position in the RSP ETF — the Equal-Weight S&P 500.
This is a friendly reminder — if you’re up hundreds of percentage points in high flying momentum names operating in the AI infrastructure space, take profits. Book your win. Then consider rotating that capital back into well-diversified index funds.
Robert’s Callout
Retail investors are deploying capital at a record pace.
June is on track to become the strongest month in the history of this dataset, with daily purchases running nearly four times last year’s average. On June 12th, retail net buying hit the largest single-day level ever observed on the platform, surpassing the previous record by 50%.
During the first half of 2026, retail investors purchased nearly 3.5x the average daily amount on S&P 500 down days. That is the strongest buy-the-dip behavior in the dataset. And even when the market was already moving higher, they still bought nearly 1.5x the daily average.
You can see, retail investors are not just chasing green days. They are buying weakness aggressively and continuing to add exposure on rallies.
That tells us something important about how market psychology has changed. A generation of investors has been trained by the last 15 years to view volatility as opportunity. Every major selloff since the financial crisis has eventually rewarded people who kept buying high-quality assets and stayed invested.
That does not mean every dip should be bought blindly. Valuation still matters. Risk management still matters. And cash still has a role. But the bigger trend is clear: retail investors have become a much more important source of market demand than they were in the past.
Long-term wealth is built by staying in the game, buying quality when others get nervous, and understanding that volatility is usually the price of admission.
The Rich Habits Radar
👉 Claude Fable 5 returned after U.S. export controls were lifted.
👉 Semis dominated the S&P 500’s best first-half performers.
👉 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pushed back on rate-cut hopes.
👉 Private payrolls slowed to 98,000 jobs in June.
👉 Oil posted its biggest quarterly drop in six years.
👉 The Japanese yen hit a new 40-year low against the dollar.
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Disclosure: This content is sponsored by NEOS Investments. The creator is compensated by NEOS to discuss NEOS ETFs. This content is for informational purposes only, and is not personalized investment, tax, or legal advice, and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Before investing, carefully review the NEOS ETFs prospectus at neosfunds.com.