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Hi Everyone,
It’s a crazy time in the markets. We’ll be hosting a two-hour livestream on Tuesday for the Rich Habits Network to break it all down. Click here to start your free trial and join us!
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A quick breakdown — in case you don’t have the time.
⭐ The January’s jobs report looked strong – but revisions make it questionable.
⭐ Ahead of Valentine’s Day, we broke down financial red flags in relationships.
⭐ Capital is flowing back into large caps – and away from credit risk.
⭐ Consumers hit ‘pause’ in December.
⭐ U.S. January budget deficit fell to $95B, revenue beat spending growth.
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Market Overview
As of market open, 2/12/2026
ETF Winners & Losers
Chart of the Week
The January’s jobs report looked strong — but the revisions tell a different story.
The economy added +130,000 jobs in January, roughly double expectations, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. On the surface, it was a clear upside surprise. But as you dig deeper, you realize the backward revisions were substantial.
Updated data shows the economy added just +181,000 jobs for all of 2025 — revised sharply lower from the previously reported 584,000. That marks the slowest pace of job growth outside of a recession since 2003, with several months last year showing outright payroll declines.
Healthcare and social assistance accounted for nearly all of the job growth in January, while most other sectors posted minimal gains or losses. Government payrolls continued to shrink as DOGE-related deferred resignations officially hit the payroll data.
The takeaway can be viewed a few different ways. The labor market isn’t collapsing, but it isn’t broadly accelerating either. Growth remains concentrated and fragile, reinforcing the idea that the economy is cooling unevenly rather than reaccelerating decisively.
For markets, that balance matters. A steady unemployment rate alongside modest job creation keeps recession fears contained — but the weak underlying trend suggests policymakers will remain cautious heading further into 2026.
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In Case You Missed It…
In this week’s Monday-morning episode of the Rich Habits Podcast (linked here) — Austin and Robert break down the quiet money red flags that show up in relationships… and how to spot them before they turn into serious problems.
With Valentine’s Day around the corner — and Americans projected to spend $14.6 billion ($185 per person) — this episode explores why money gets irrational when love is involved, and how small financial misalignments can quietly compound over time.
Here’s what they covered…
Red Flag #1: Lack of Financial Transparency — If you can’t talk about income, debt, or money goals when the stakes are low, you definitely won’t handle those conversations well when the stakes are high. Couples who avoid financial conversations early often build resentment that surfaces later during major life decisions.
Red Flag #2: Normalizing Overspending — When “everyone lives like this” becomes the justification for lifestyle creep, debt quietly fills the gap. If one partner values long-term goals and the other values keeping up appearances, conflict is inevitable unless expectations are clearly aligned.
Red Flag #3: Measuring Value by Cost — When love is expressed primarily through spending, financial pressure builds fast. This mindset often leads to financial infidelity — hidden purchases, secret accounts, and unspoken money anxiety that erodes trust over time.
The bigger message: avoiding money conversations doesn’t protect your relationship — it weakens it. Intentional, honest communication about spending, expectations, and values is a skill that compounds just like investing does.
Valentine’s Day isn’t really about the dinner reservation. It’s about whether you’re making financial decisions intentionally — together — or reacting to outside pressure.
Here’s a link to the Q&A episode that was posted this morning.
You can submit questions for these episodes by asking them inside of the Rich Habits Network, replying to this email, or sending us a DM on Instagram.
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Austin’s Callout
Capital is flowing back into large caps and away from credit risk.
U.S. large-cap equities led inflows last week, followed by global equities and consumer cyclicals. Investors are clearly leaning into size, liquidity, and earnings visibility rather than hiding on the sidelines.
At the same time, high-yield bonds saw the largest outflows, even as the broader fixed-income universe still attracted capital. Investors appear comfortable owning duration and quality — but are dialing back exposure to lower-credit-risk assets.
This isn’t panic positioning. It’s selective risk-taking. Money is rotating into equity strength while trimming exposure to the most economically sensitive corners of credit.
For markets, that tells us sentiment remains constructive — but not reckless. When large caps attract steady inflows while junk bonds see pressure, it suggests investors still believe in growth, just with a preference for quality over speculation.
For those of you inside the Rich Habits Network, you know from my portfolio update last week I’ve been buying industrials, materials, infrastructure, and all of the boring names — I’m optimistic these sectors of the equity markets will bode well for 2026.
Robert’s Callout
Consumers hit ‘pause’ in December.
Headline retail sales were flat last month, missing expectations for a +0.4% increase. Sales excluding autos were also unchanged, while the control group — the measure used to calculate GDP — declined -0.1%, marking its first drop in three months.
The details suggest cooling momentum rather than collapse. After a strong holiday stretch and solid gains in prior months, December’s report points to a consumer that may be growing more cautious as rates remain elevated and excess savings continue to fade.
Markets care about the control group most, since it feeds directly into GDP calculations. A softer print here could modestly temper first-quarter growth expectations if the trend continues.
For now, this looks more like moderation than weakness. The consumer isn’t accelerating — but they’re not rolling over either. And in this cycle, steady is still supportive for equities.
The Rich Habits Radar
👉 U.S. January budget deficit fell to $95B, revenue beat spending growth.
👉 Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square revealed a new position in Meta.
👉 Bitcoin whales bought 53K coins in a week, most buying since November.
👉 Warner Bros. buyout intensified & Paramount raised its bid.
👉 Lyft stock plunged after earnings disappointed and guidance came in light.
👉 Robinhood topped EPS but revenue fell shy on crypto slump.
👉 Oscar Health missed earnings but reported strong 2026 guidance.
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Disclosure: This content is sponsored by NEOS Investments. The creator is compensated by NEOS to discuss NEOS ETFs. This content is for informational purposes only, and is not personalized investment, tax, or legal advice, and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Before investing, carefully review the NEOS ETFs prospectus at neosfunds.com.